If you could not already tell, this William and Mary team has its issues. Most of them we already knew before the season began: this team is young, it will be turnover-prone, it will struggle to find scorers, there will be a defensive vacuum without the overwhelming presence of Nathan Knight. Nevertheless, with Luke Loewe and NBN-stats darling Thornton Scott returning, I thought they would have a chance to surprise people in the CAA this year. That hope only remains on the gamble that the Tribe of the first two games reappears despite teams clearly keying in on how to stop this offense.
Offensively, the Tribe are performing at a much lower level than last year. While they are still a good three-point shooting team, William & Mary’s two-point shooting percentage (2P%) has declined by a whopping 6.6 points. To be clear, last year’s team did have the 33rd-highest 2P% in the country last year, but this season the team is getting blocked on 16 percent of their attempts, almost double the NCAA average. The players are either not taking good shots or not being efficient when they get into good positions.
Total rebounds per game have declined from 36 per game to 31.8. This stems from a precipitous drop in defensive rebounding despite an increase in offensive rebounding. The team is also averaging two less assists per game. In this terrible run of form, beyond shooting less than 30 percent from the field, assists are markedly down. They are one of only 13 teams since 2010 to have two games in the same season shooting less 30 percent and tally less than 7 assists.
Why the difference?
It’s not easy to diagnose the problems, and there are many, facing this team. Lack of talent and experience is obviously a glaring issue, but Dane Fischer has shown the ability to coach up players even in short amounts of time. Nevertheless, this team currently looks to be without an identity. The Tribe are built to be a three-point shooting team, yet the team is shooting the three-ball at the lowest rate since 2006. This team has some good ball handlers in Loewe and Thornton Scott, but assists are way down.
Defensively, the lack of a consistent presence in the paint is clearly holding this team back. Earlier in December, it was easy to get sucked into the hype surrounding Mehkel Harvey’s bevy of blocks. Yes, it was good that this team was getting some recognition, but the fact that Harvey was being shot on enough to tally that many blocks was the sinister truth hiding inside that statistic. The Tribe’s opponents are currently gaining 60.8 percent of their points from two-point range, more than 10 points higher than the NCAA average, while shooting at a 55 percent clip, much above average. Thus, even despite teams shooting slightly above average from three against William & Mary, teams are keying in on the ease with which they can score inside. Indeed, opponent three-point attempts only make up 29 percent of total attempts, the lowest tally for Tribe opponents since 1999. Center is the position that is most in flux on this team. The lack of contribution from this position not only leads to a soft defensive underbelly but also hampers penetration in the opposing team’s paint, hamstringing the Tribe’s offensive versatility.
And this lack of versatility has been on display for the last two and a half games. Even when the three-ball is working, and it has appeared broken in the last two games, the Tribe has to generate points through other means. In the game against George Washington, this production came from Luke Loewe and Yuri Covington driving to the basket and putting up contested shots. That worked on that specific night, but teams have already begun to take away those options from the Tribe. Loewe averaged almost 14 shots in the Tribe’s first three games. In the following two, Loewe has only averaged 8.5. Over the same time frame, William & Mary’s 2P% declined from 53.6 to 36 percent. Opponent teams are daring William and Mary to beat them by working the ball into dangerous areas, a task that this team has shown to be unable to do so far.
If the defense is set and able to effectively collapse on a player driving to the basket, an effective passer can help unlock the game for the offense. However, with the starting point guard, Yuri Covington, consistently turning the ball over and Scott, the Tribe’s second leading assister last season, disappearing on the court, William and Mary has struggled to move the ball. Indeed, looking at the Tribe’s assist map, Loewe, best used off-the-ball as a shooter, is the team’s most effective passer. Loewe accounts for nearly a third of the Tribe’s assists while the team’s starting point guard, Covington, is only the Tribe’s third leading assister. Scott has not registered an assist in two-straight games, the longest drought in his college career.
While Bryce Barnes, last season’s point guard, was not a prolific scorer, he excelled in getting the ball to the team’s scorers. Assuredly, Covington does not have the option to pass to Knight in the post, but he and Scott have not shown the ability to consistently move the ball and slice open a defense. Although it isn’t reflected in the statistics at this point, Scott, Covington, and Kochera can be offensive weapons when used properly. Is it a possibility that we make Loewe the primary ball-handler and run the offense, at least until Covington has developed some more?
Getting satisfactory play from your point guard, the one player who will initiate most possessions offensively, is critical. Caleb Burgess and Camren Wynter, the starting point guards for Hofstra and Drexel respectively, are able to lead their team’s in assist frequency and contribute by scoring; it is not an either-or situation. Offenses will work better when the team can move the ball and not rely on shots from deep and contested twos.
So how will this season go?
As it stands, William and Mary’s probability of making it to the Big Dance is slim. This is a team that cannot prevent opponents from working their way inside or work their way inside on the other end. Knight was an extraordinary player whose void in this roster has not been adequately filled, perhaps because of COVID’s impact on the transfer market. Nevertheless, Coach Fischer must work with what he has, and luckily the players do have potential. Solving the center rotation problem and instilling a cohesive offensive identity can do wonders for this team. Perhaps this team is not going to challenge for the CAA title, but Williamsburg’s finest have the chance to improve. Let’s hope they take it.