It’s been a few years since the William & Mary men’s basketball team has done anything in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament that could reasonably be described as “making a run.” In fact, the last semifinals appearance for the Tribe was my favorite W&M team of all time, the run-and-gun 2017-18 squad. Even so, they only had to win one game to get there, and were dispatched by Charleston in somewhat decisive fashion.
Since then, W&M is 1-4 in the CAA tourney, with the “1” coming in the Covid year against UNCW in that weird tournament at JMU. This season may have seen some struggles, but there’s no reason the Tribe can’t win one (or two) games at the Entertainment and Sports Arena in DC this weekend. Here are a few keys to W&M making a run at this year’s CAA tournament.
Shoot the three well – and often
Perhaps surprisingly, given the Tribe’s weaknesses since Dane Fischer took over as the head man, W&M ranked second in the CAA in three-point percentage, hitting almost 37 percent of its shots from downtown. But instead of leaning into one of its strengths, the Tribe seemed reluctant at times to rely on its long-range shooting. I can understand the philosophy to not let fickle shooting percentages decide games, especially for a team that is outclassing opponents in other areas. But W&M is not that – instead, they are now the underdog, looking for a spark to get past teams that are better than them on paper.
The Tribe has been looking for its three-point shot more lately, which may be a good sign heading into the tournament. Over its first 25 games, W&M only tallied 20 or more three-point attempts 10 times. But over the last six contests, the Tribe has done it five times. They’ll be without sharpshooter Gabe Dorsey, but Miguel Ayesa’s reemergence into the rotation will certainly help their cause knocking down triples.
Rediscovering “good Anders”
Point guard play in general will be key for the Tribe, whether Anders Nelson, Tyler Rice, or Chris Mullins. But Nelson in particular will have to be in good form is W&M wants to make some noise in DC. He’s shown the ability to score when he decides to, and that will likely be needed if the Tribe is going to pull off an upset or two. But most importantly, Nelson must control the game. Through the first half of the season, the graduate student looked every part of his five years in college basketball, in ways both visible and invisible in the box score. But through the second half of the campaign, there have been times where his experience has not shown up. In W&M’s ugly loss to North Carolina A&T, Nelson turned the ball over 7 times, while he did not manage a single assist in arguably the Tribe’s worst defeat all season at Northeastern.
All this is to say, the Tribe desperately needs Nelson at his best this weekend. W&M doesn’t have another player to fill that specific facilitator role. Tyler Rice has played better as of late, but looks better suited for an off-ball role with more of a scoring bent. The other player who has filled a ballhandling role is Chris Mullins, but he’s more of a slasher with the ball in his hands. Nelson might be the most important player to a potential W&M run at the ESA.
Mix things up defensively
Over his time at W&M, Fischer has stubbornly stuck with his man-to-man philosophy. That has been true for this most part this year, and it hasn’t quite worked. There have been games where the Tribe’s defense has made the difference – I think of the wins over Radford and UNC Wilmington off the top of my head – but over the course of the season, it has been more of an anchor than propellor. Just two CAA teams ranked lower over the course of conference play in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. Even worse, the Tribe ranked dead last in the league in two-point percentage against. Rim protection in particular has been a problem for them, and with Collier out, they may need to step up on the boards as well. That’s where I think a reasonable amount of zone could help.
We’ve seen Fischer break it out a little bit towards the end of the year, most notably Senior Day against Monmouth. Mixing it in to help out Ben Wight on the interior when it comes to contesting two-pointers and rebounding the ball could be helpful. (Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but potential quarterfinals opponent Hofstra is the 18th-best shooting team from inside the arc. Shutting them down at the rim might be the first step to making it interesting).
The eighth-seeded Tribe takes on #9 Elon at noon on Saturday in the second round of the CAA tournament, held at the Entertainment and Sports Arena in Southeast DC. If W&M wins, it will take on top seed Hofstra at noon on Sunday in the CAA quarterfinals.