Happy 2021! We’ll save you the bravado about how horrendous 2020 was, but, even symbolically, we’re happy it’s a new year on the calendar. Hopefully, a new year brings new improvement for the Tribe.
We knew there would be ups and downs with such a young team. But, over the past couple of games, we’ve seen a lot more of the downs, especially on the offensive side of the floor. William and Mary has shot 28.6 percent from the floor in the last two games combined — you’re not going to win many games with shooting performances that poor. But it was far from the only problem this team has experienced.
With about a week and a half between games, the Tribe has had a fair amount of time to reset for the start of conference play. First up is Hofstra, as William and Mary make the trip up to Long Island to play the Colonial Athletic Association favorites on back to back days. If we’re gonna see this team compete in the conference this year, we’re gonna have to see it starting Saturday and Sunday.
William and Mary Tribe @ Hofstra Pride — Saturday, 2 p.m. // Sunday, 2 p.m.
Watch on FloSports (Flo sucks) | Listen
Tale of the Tape
According to John Kearns’s KYUSAG Model, Hofstra is a 12-point favorite over William and Mary, while the Tribe holds onto an 11.3 percent chance to spring the upset.
W&M is ranked 295th in KenPom (219th adj off/334th adj def) while Hofstra is ranked 140th (108th adj off/182nd adj def).
Projected Starters
W&M: G Luke Loewe (Sr.), G Yuri Covington (Fr.), G Connor Kochera (Fr.), F Quinn Blair (Jr.), F Mehkel Harvey (Jr.)
Hof: G Caleb Burgess (So.), G Jalen Ray (Sr.), G Tareq Coburn (Sr.), F David Green (Fr.), F Isacc Kante (Jr.)
What to Watch For
William and Mary has struggled inside, as opponents have shot 54.8 percent from inside the arc against the Tribe. That’s good for 280th in the country, as the 2P% is five points higher than the NCAA average. Mehkel Harvey and Ben Wight have to do better, of course, but perimeter players also need to stop penetration better … After starting the season 6-for-7 from three-point range in the season-opener, Connor Kochera has shot 3-for-12 from downtown since. It’s not entirely concerning, but I would love to see him continue to contribute in other ways … Yuri Covington has started to show his range, making 6-of-10 threes in the last three games. If he continues to show that consistently, it can definitely open up to floor for him to get to the rim.
Hofstra was picked first preseason in the CAA and has played well so far. In their last outing, the Pride beat #23 Richmond 76-71 on the road. John Kearns’s KYUSAG Model has Hofstra as the highest-rated team in the conference … After losing an All-CAA First Teamer (Desure Buie) and Second Teamer (Eli Pemberton), Jalen Ray and Tareq Coburn have picked up the scoring load, averaging 19.0 and 18.1 points per game, respectively. Isacc Kante, the Pride’s bruiser inside, is averaging a double-double, with just over 13 points per contest to go along with 10.7 boards. The Tribe can’t allow Kante to impose his will this weekend … This is the first we’ve seen of the back-to-back games that will define this conference season. We’ll see if it changes anybody’s strategy going into the first game.
William and Mary-Hofstra has had its fair share of awesome moments over its recent history. I wasn’t even at William and Mary yet when Daniel Dixon hit The Shot in the CAA Tournament, but it’s still etched in my memory. Of course, he did it again a couple years later in Hempstead when I was a freshman. And who can forget the double-overtime thriller in Williamsburg two years ago.
I’m not expecting another entry to that log today, not least of which is because W&M lacks the star power that the best of those games featured. But if I’ve learned one thing about these teams meeting, it’s to expect the unexpected.
See ya at 2 p.m. on FloSports. I’ll be flipping back and forth between the men and the women (weekend preview coming shortly). Go Tribe.