The non-conference schedule is a time for an up-and-coming team to put themselves to the test, to see if they can sink or swim with some of the NCAA’s best teams. In this young, COVID-plagued season, the Tribe have already sunk like a stone against some less-than-stellar opponents.
For much of November and December, our KYUSAG model had been relatively optimistic for the prospects on William and Mary’s first season without Nathan Knight. Our model initially placed the Tribe as the 233rd best team in the NCAA, good for the eighth spot in the CAA. After surprising wins at George Washington and versus Hampton, their ranking surged to 154th in the country. Connor Kochera was hitting threes. Luke Loewe and Yuri Covington were feasting at the rim. Even Mehkel Harvey was leading the entire nation in blocks per game! The Tribe was proving all of the doubters wrong. They were swimming as if the ball and chain of preseason expectations was nothing.
Then came an offensive collapse so pronounced in the data it made this No Bid Nation analyst do a double take. Not only was the Tribe sporting the 22nd worst defense in the country, allowing a tempo-adjusted 109 points per 100 possessions, they also were the sole owners of an offense allergic to scoring, second-worst in the CAA. Since the second half of the Hampton game, the Tribe has been outscored 178 to 112. The team’s KYUSAG ranking has plummeted 121 places to 275th. And it’s not just me; KenPom has William & Mary ranked 287th while Bart Torvik places them at 303rd.
The rest of the CAA has not had such a disappointing non-conference slate. A couple teams have been surprising from the first tip-off, and a couple look like real CAA title contenders. Even looking from the CAA evolution plot, one can see that the conference is already breaking into tiers. But instead of sorting the teams by their current CAA ranking, I will look at the change in the teams’ KYUSAG rating from our preseason predictions to illustrate which teams are hot and which are not.
Tier 1 is comprised of Hofstra (+4.37) and James Madison (+4.22). It’s an achievement for JMU to perform this well given the upheaval and disappointment from the previous year. The second tier holds UNCW (+3.66), Northeastern (+3.68), and Drexel (+3.10). Again, it is noteworthy that consensus CAA bottom-feeders UNCW and JMU are surging, while William & Mary flounders. Tier 3 is Elon (-2.14) and Delaware (-2.52). And at the bottom, unsurprisingly, are (Galloway-less) Charleston (-2.99), Towson (-3.18), and William & Mary (-3.26). Basketball is often about momentum; the Tribe is lacking in that regard.
However, those statistics lump JMU, still objectively not a great team, with Hofstra. I would be remiss if I did not give more credit to the CAA teams that are getting it done. Looking purely at offensive and defensive efficiency, Drexel clearly stands out as the only team in the CAA to have above-average offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Drexel will be a hard team to play this year, especially with Camren Wynter having another great year. Hofstra also looks incredibly balanced and no doubt feel driven to enjoy the March Madness berth they earned last year. Honorable mention goes to the UNCW Seahawks for separating themselves from the rest when everyone was counting them out. They have looked positive and full of energy in every game they have played, improving mightily on what was the CAA’s worst offensive output last season.
I am excited to see where this CAA season goes! Several teams have the capability to take the league, and I am thankful we have college basketball to keep us company through this winter. Watch out later in the week for a deeper dive into the stats outlining the Tribe’s troubles.