We’ve hit the halfway mark of CAA play, and after the Tribe hung onto a 65-61 home win over Elon Saturday, the William and Mary men are 4-5 against conference competition. It’s a world away from where many of us thought this team would be following a 1-12 non-conference slate, with the “1” against DIII Mary Baldwin, in its first year of varsity competition. And W&M trailed in that game for most of the first half. Suffice it to say the expectations for the conference season were subterranean.
And yet, in its first CAA game of the season, the Tribe somehow came up with a massive upset over Hofstra, 63-62. Then they followed it up with another gutsy victory over Northeastern. While W&M hasn’t quite held onto first place in the conference, it doesn’t look destined for the basement as seemed inevitable even five weeks ago. Here are 5 numbers to help explain W&M’s success halfway through conference play.
6th
As of now, W&M’s 4-5 record is good for 6th in the conference. If Drexel falls to UNCW Monday night, the Tribe will move into a tie for 5th with the Dragons (and would currently own the tiebreaker). In order to stay out of the play-in game on Saturday of the CAA tournament, the Tribe will have to finish 7th or better among the 9 teams eligible for the conference championship. Remember, JMU will not be competing in the tournament. Right now, W&M is 4.5 games ahead of winless Northeastern in last place and a full game ahead of Elon in 8th among non-JMU teams. Finishing with a 7-11 record should be enough to secure a bye to the CAA quarterfinals.
81.1
Since the beginning of conference play, 81.1% of minutes have been played by freshmen or sophomores. A promising core of young players has emerged, with Tyler Rice, Julian Lewis, Connor Kochera, Yuri Covington, Ben Wight, Jake Milkereit, and Langdon Hatton all playing big roles. Youth is becoming less and less of an excuse as these players continue to gel. They still have their moments sometime, but they’re maturing in front of us. Which brings us to…
16.3
The Tribe has still struggled with turnovers throughout conference play, but there’s certainly been some improvement on that front. After averaging 17.5 turnovers per game in non-conference play, W&M has been turning it over just 16.3 times per contest so far in the conference season. And in the past six games, the Tribe has kept it at 13 turnovers or below four times. It’s still frustrating, but progress.
29.8%
It’s been up-and-down for W&M on the offensive end of the floor, but the Tribe has been consistently good defensively against CAA teams. The most impressive facet of the Tribe’s defense has been behind the arc, as W&M has forced opponents into tough, contested threes. Conference rivals are shooting just 29.8% from downtown so far this season
7.0% and 3.9%
Brandon Carroll has recovered from a disappointing start to his season to become a huge part of W&M’s success over the past month. Carroll has improved offensively to the point where Coach Dane Fischer can keep him on the floor for longer stretches (see his 16 points at College of Charleston), but he makes his biggest impact on the defensive end. His athleticism makes him a problem for opponents – according to KenPom, Carroll’s block rate of 7.0% and steal rate of 3.9% rank 81st and 63rd in the nation, respectively.
This is a huge week for the Tribe, as Charleston makes the trek to Williamsburg Thursday and conference-leading UNCW visits Saturday. Even just one win would be very helpful – if W&M can extend its streak of home wins over the Cougars or use the Gold Rush energy to overcome the Seahawks, the Tribe will find it much easier to avoid a Saturday game in DC.