If you told us two weeks ago that the Tribe would not only be 2-0 (with wins over preseason #2 Northeastern and #5 Hofstra) in conference play but also leading the conference, we would’ve thought you sounded more crazy than a TWAMP pulling an all-nighter on ten cups of Aromas coffee. Nonetheless, after a disastrous non-conference slate, that is exactly the fortunate position W&M is in. And even crazier than that, the team has looked pretty good doing so!
After reflecting on these wins, we were left with two questions: (1) what exactly is the team doing differently now, and (2) what are the odds W&M will be able to keep this up? Even though Lady Luck was firmly on our side to snatch those two wins from the jaws of defeat, the stats and the eye test bode well for the team moving forward. A re-energized defense, shooting performances reverting to the mean, and contributions from some key players bodes well for a competitive (but probably not elite) basketball team.
Are we good now?
By now, it’s clear this Tribe team will not be an offensive juggernaut, but these two games showed what this team can do if it minimizes mistakes (BIG IF), focuses on taking good shots at the right moments, and, most importantly, keeps games close on the defensive end.
Conference play has coincided with two of the Tribe’s two best defensive performances to date. Hofstra only managed an adjusted 79 points per 100 possessions, while Northeastern performed better at 98.3 points per 100 possessions. Both of those figures are significantly below the league average of 102. William & Mary handed Hofstra, a team noted for its fight against Top 25 teams like Maryland and Arkansas, its worst offensive performance of the season, and even Bill Coen’s Huskies were left without much bite (although Northeastern was missing preseason all-CAA selection Shaquille Walters).
The standout facets of the team’s defensive performances are clear in the data: Hofstra shot more and more poorly behind the arc and Northeastern committed more turnovers than they were accustomed to. On the season, three-point attempts encompassed 46 percent of Hofstra’s shots, making 34 percent of them. Hofstra’s strength this season, however, has been their finishing inside the arc; the Pride rank in the top 30 nationally in two-point field goal percentage at 52.2 percent. However, thanks to an excellent game plan devised by Coach Bollinger, Coach Fischer, and the rest of the staff, the team focused on preventing penetration and easy looks at the rim. In the December 29 matchup, Hofstra took 54 percent of their shots from three-point range, making only 18% of them. And even when a Hofstra player was able to get to the bucket, they only finished at a 40 percent clip, 25 percentage points below their average.
Meanwhile, while Northeastern shot relatively better than Hofstra (26 percent from three, 48 percent overall), energetic, pressing defense from Brandon Carroll, Yuri Covington, and Julian Lewis gave the Huskies offense fits. The Tribe forced 20 total turnovers, including 13 steals (Lewis, Yuri, and Carroll each accounted for three or more steals). The 20 turnovers are seven above Northeastern’s season average, and each one was instrumental in keeping this game close when sophomore guard Jahmyl Telfort could pop off at any moment.
But is this sustainable?
Should we expect to see the Tribe in the CAA conference championship based on these two games? Probably not. Luck was instrumental in snatching these wins from the jaws of defeat. In both games, the team found themselves down by two with under thirty seconds remaining (and in the Northeastern game, with four seconds remaining). No matter how good your defense is, it is unlikely we will be able to make a pattern of forcing turnovers on inbounds passes or getting fouled on last-second three-point attempts. A season-high in turnovers (22) in the Hofstra game and sub-20 percent shooting from beyond the arc are clear reminders of the limitations and issues that this team still needs to overcome if they want to be a force in the CAA again.
Nonetheless, it should still be noted if somehow the team was able to eliminate even five of those turnovers against Hofstra to get back to their season average per game, the game would not even have been that close to require a crazy, Sportscenter-esque finish to win. The Tribe defense is surely growing into its own, with youngster Julian Lewis winning CAA Player of the Week in large part due to his central defensive roles against Northeastern and Hofstra, as well as a few timely buckets. Brandon Carroll and Mehkel Harvey showed that even if they aren’t scoring, their presence can impact games. Harvey’s return, in particular, may shore up the Tribe’s interior defense, which had often given up way too many easy baskets around the rim, with his shot-blocking ability.
Perhaps the best sign of things to come, however, is the sense that the Tribe are playing more as a team now than ever before. Offensive contributions are coming from up and down the roster sheet; Jake Milkereit and Julian Lewis were indispensable against Hofstra, and Brandon Carroll and Yuri Covington deserve more credit for their shifts against Northeastern. Five players scored 10 or more points against Northeastern; against Davidson, for example, that figure sat only at two. And this growth is in spite of the facts that the team has still never played a game with a fully-healthy roster. Quinn Blair has been missing for large portions of the season, and the specter of COVID-19 continues to loom.
It is unclear if the team will be able to keep up this level of defensive energy as the season wears on, but on the other hand it is becoming more clear that the excuse of “this is a young team” is becoming less and less applicable. The team has proven that while they may not go undefeated in CAA play this year, they have the capabilities to remain competitive against some of the league’s best. The growing pains have been excruciating at times, and we at No Bid Nation are still hoping this is a real turning of the seasons instead of a false spring. But we have more reason to be hopeful than ever before.