It is hard to believe it was just under a year ago that KYUSAG, No Bid Nation’s own model tracking the NCAA 2020-21 season, was born. It’s even sadder to think that KYUSAG is now officially in retirement, off to greener pastures. But in it’s place is an (hopefully) even better version, the Kearns Regression Adjusted Model or KRAM for short! KRAM has produced for us its predicted ranking of the Colonial Athletic Association 2021-22 season, as it stands before Tuesday’s tipoff.
As a refresher, KRAM is a regression-based basketball rating model that factors in player experience, previous season performance, and in-season performance to estimate the strongest and weakest teams in the league. (Data nerds can read about our methodology here!) KRAM assigns strength ratings, the points better or worse than the average basketball squad. Our preseason rankings are based on our prior estimates, which are designed to balance early estimates from the model that are easily skewed by outlier games. Prior estimates are constructed by predicting this year’s KRAM ratings based on recruiting, roster turnover, and previous performance. Crucially, it is important to note that this model does not integrate information about coaching quality, injuries, or other variables that would subjectively influence the perception of each team. We hope these rankings give insight into which teams have gotten better (or worse) since March.
However, it is important to explicitly note that these rankings can be biased in certain, and perhaps unexpected, directions because of the reliance on the prior estimates. One problem for many smaller conferences is the lack of recruitment of starred players. For each point better in 247Sports recruitment composite rating, a team’s coefficient improves by 0.12 points. As the season progresses and I accumulate more data, the rankings and predictions will improve mightily.
For more data and statistics on college basketball this season, including visualizations, continue to follow us here at NoBidNation.com, at our data Web App, and on twitter @databyKearns.
10. William & Mary
2020-21 (Regular Season) Position: 7th
2021 CAA Coaches’ Poll Position: 10th
KRAM Rating: -7.65
What the model says: It is always a sad time when the model has to agree with all the haters and naysayers when it comes to Tribe basketball. That being said, the path is definitely uphill for the Green and Gold, who ended last season the worst-ranked team in the CAA as estimated by KRAM. This season, losing Luke Loewe to Minnesota does not buoy their prospects statistically either. Nonetheless, the Tribe’s returning players represent 78.7% of all minutes played last season, the third-highest mark in the CAA. We have a young team who can hopefully do some damage if they get consistent.
9. College of Charleston
2020-21 Position: 3rd
2021 CAA Poll Position: 7th
KRAM Rating: -3.94
What the model says:Charleston had a topsy-turvy end to a topsy-turvy season in March when coach Earl Grant left for Boston College. KRAM hates that only a handful of players remain from last year’s roster, representing only 27.9% of minutes played, the 22nd lowest percentage in all of D1 basketball. Charleston is an unknown quantity, we will see how this ends up…
8. UNC Wilmington
2020-21 Position: 10th
2021 CAA Poll Position: 9th
KRAM Rating: -3.87
What the model says:2021-21 was a lost season for the Seahawks, missing more games than any other CAA team due to COVID protocols, and 2022 does not seem to hold much more promise. By the numbers, UNCW has the second-most talented returning roster of players in the CAA, headlined by guards Mike Okauru and Jaylen Sims. But this may not be enough to balance the second-highest level of roster turnover in the conference.
7. Towson
2020-21 Position: 9th
2021 CAA Poll Position: 8th
KRAM Rating: -3.64
What the model says:The Tigers did not have a great year in 2021, but this coming season has the potential to be a little better. Guards Terry Nolan Jr and Antonio Rizzuto and forward Chase Paar headline the conference’s most-talented set of transfers. They will have to fill Zane Martin’s very large shoes, but there are some pieces in place to make for an interesting season.
6. Hofstra
2020-21 Position: 4th
2021 CAA Poll Position: 5th
KRAM Rating: -1.01
What the model says:Only two years removed from having a trip to the Big Dance rudely cancelled, Hofstra seems to be in a team in flux. Last year, the Pride had the second-best offense in the CAA but also the third-worst defense. This is officially no longer Joe Mihalich’s team in Hampstead, and it is now up to new head coach Speedy Claxton to keep a team with the second-largest departure of talent in the CAA unified.
5. Delaware
2020-21 Position: 5th
2021 CAA Poll Position: 1st
KRAM Rating: 0.13
What the model says:Now Delaware is a team on which this author might disagree with KRAM’s suggestions. Players encompassing 96.4% of all minutes played last season for the Blue Hens are returning for another crack at the CAA title, the 15th-highest figure in D1 basketball. This might be a case where previous performances weigh heavily on the KRAM rating, as Delaware had the second-most anemic offense in the CAA last season (as measured by KRAM).
4. Elon
2020-21 Position: 8th
2021 CAA Poll Position: 6th
KRAM Rating: 1.32
What the model says:It feels like Elon is stuck in Groundhog Day: have an underwhelming regular season, get hot in the CAA playoffs, make it to the semifinals or finals, and ultimately lose to a better team but provide hope for next season. Rinse. Repeat. Relatively little turnover this season for Elon means they should generally be another year older and wiser. But will they be more consistent?
3. Drexel
2020-21 Position: 1st
2021 CAA Poll Position: 3rd
KRAM Rating: 2.28
What the model says:And the reigning champs come in on our list at number three. Even with the departure of Zach Walton and TJ Bickerstaff, this team is deep and talented. Camren Wynter and 10th-year senior James Butler headline the CAA’s highest-rated returning roster, according to KRAM. Such a ‘relatively’ low ranking is no knock on the Dragons but a sign of respect to the last two teams on our list.
2. James Madison
2020-21 Position: 1st
2021 CAA Poll Position: 4th
KRAM Rating: 3.41
What the model says:And James Madison might have been your CAA champions (regular season championships count for very little in my estimation) had Matt Lewis not suffered a season-ending injury during the run-up to the conference tourney. This is still a very talented team with a solid crop of transfers (third-best transfer group in the CAA), but it’s a shame that they won’t have the opportunity to go to the Big Dance this year.
1. Northeastern
2020-21 Position: 2nd
2021 CAA Poll Position: 5th
KRAM Rating: 4.32
What the model says: As long as Bill Coen is the coach at Northeastern, it is hard to bet against the Huskies in the CAA. Jahmyl Telfort and Shaquille Walters will lead a team returning 81% of their minutes played from last season, the second-best mark in the CAA. Losing Tyson Walker will hurt, but transfers like Nikola Djogo from Notre Dame will help fill the void. Northeastern is always a force to be reckoned with, and this season will probably be no different.