While teams all around the CAA are worried about this weekend’s results, they would already know exactly what will happen if they were following the KYUSAG model predictions on Twitter (@databyKearns)!
For a refresher, KYUSAG is No Bid Nation’s model of relative team strength. Using scores from this season, KYUSAG estimates relative strength ratings that inform pre-game win probabilities. In other words, KYUSAG can see the future.
More recently – and just for the CAA tournament – I hooked up the model to my crystal ball. Since my crystal ball gets HD picture quality, I can see highlights from all the games, which I will record for all of you! So let’s see what’s going to happen!
(To see KYUSAG’s official tournament prediction, you can go here! This article is based on only one specific simulation of the model is not liable for inaccuracies.)
#8 Elon vs #9 Towson
Pre-game win probability: 54.8%, Elon
Score line: 70-67, Elon
From tipoff, this game was never in doubt for Elon. Having entered as the hottest team in the conference, on great shooting performances no less, Elon jumped out to an early double-digit lead thanks to three first-half threes from forward Hunter McIntosh. The game only got close in the final three minutes of the game, when Mike Schrage gave McIntosh a rest. An 11-2 run for Towson, of which eight points were either scored or assisted by Zane Martin, brought the game within three. The Tigers, though, could not get any closer, and Elon held on.
First Round
#7 William & Mary vs #10 UNCW
Pre-game win probability: 75.3%, UNC Wilmington
Score line: 76-72, UNCW
Two of the conference’s coldest teams faced off on Day 1, and the rust was evident. For two-and-a-half minutes, the teams traded misses, including two uncharacteristic free throw misses from Ty Gadsden. While William & Mary continued to struggle offensively, Luke Loewe was able to clamp down on Mike Okauru, who only scored 5 points in the game. Nevertheless, Okauru showed off his passing skills, tallying a career-high eight assists. The Tribe went on a nice run at the start of the second half as Covington and Kochera traded buckets. Nevertheless, with 20 seconds left and the Tribe down by 2, a silly turnover led to a UNCW fast-break opportunity that sealed the game.
Quarterfinals
#4 Hofstra vs #5 Delaware
Pre-game win probability: 62.0%, Hofstra
Score line: 67-64, Hofstra
This game put ‘defense wins championships’ to the test as Delaware’s conference-best defense faced Hofstra’s second-rated offensive unit. The first half ended in a 25-25 tie, with neither team able to get into a full offensive rhythm. However, both teams exploded offensively in the second half. Hofstra’s Isaac Kante and Delaware’s Dylan Painter proved why they are considered some of the best big men in the CAA; both players ended the day with double-doubles. A crucial turnover by Delaware, statistically the CAA’s most wasteful team, allowed Tareq Coburn to hit the wide-open go-ahead three. Hofstra’s defense made all the difference, ironically.
#1 James Madison vs #8 Elon
Pre-game win probability: 85.2%, JMU
Score line: 71-70, JMU
The tournament-hosts missed the presence of Matt Lewis, their best player and scorer. Elon continued their red-hot shooting from three and jumped out to an early seven-point lead. Perhaps spurred on by home-court familiarity, JMU finished the half strong and went into the locker room down by only three. In Lewis’s absence, Vado Morse and freshman Terrence Edwards picked up the slack. In crunch time, JMU was able to go on a 5-0 run to seal the win and prevent a disastrous quarterfinal exit.
#2 Northeastern vs #10 UNCW
Pre-game win probability: 64.8%, Northeastern
Score line: 73-70, UNCW
And down go Bill Coen’s Huskies! The CAA tournament’s first upset comes from a shocking second-half comeback from the Seahawks. After being held in check for most of the game vs William & Mary, Mike Okauru exploded for 20 points and 5 assists against Northeastern. After a two-game slide and a COVID break, it was no surprise that Northeastern could not keep up the pace in the second half. With a young team, Northeastern will surely challenge next year.
#3 Charleston vs #6 Drexel
Pre-game win probability: 71.3%, Drexel
Score line: 68-65, Charleston
And so ends Drexel’s topsy-turvy season, as well. At times, Drexel looked like one of the CAA’s best, but the results never really proved it. And this game surely did not help their case. Zep Jasper was the standout star from this game, scoring 17 and assisting three times. Like the rest of Drexel’s games this year, no player played terribly but none played well enough to stop this inevitable loss.
Semifinals
#4 Hofstra vs #1 James Madison
Pre-game win probability: 65.9%, JMU
Score line: 75-62, Hofstra
For anyone who watched JMU’s first game against Elon the day before, this loss may not come as a surprise. The team struggled to generate offense at times without Matt Lewis, and they only survived thanks to Elon’s weakness in the paint late in the game. The Dukes came out cold and had no answer defensively for Hofstra’s outstanding starting five. As a result, they were unceremoniously dumped from the tournament.
#10 UNCW vs #3 Charleston
Pre-game win probability: 54.5%, Charleston
Score line: 83-73, Charleston
And like the game just before it, this was never a contest. Good thing these games were on national TV! Although there were question marks about both teams heading into the tournament, Charleston proved why they belonged and UNCW proved why they did not. Although Charleston is without a clear star player, the Cougars got consistent production from their entire lineup and a great performance from freshman Dontavius King. The shots did not fall in the first half for the Seahawks, and the score differential was never less than five points. Overall a great tournament showing for two teams not expected to make it this far.
FINALS
#3 Charleston vs #4 Hofstra
Pre-game win probability: 67.2%, Hofstra
Score line: 72-71, Charleston
The CAA script-writers could not have thought of a better storyline! Hofstra, one year after having their tickets to March Madness ripped away, found themselves with a chance for the first repeat title since the 2016-17 UNC-Wilmington teams. For their part, Charleston had to overcome several key injuries and COVID to reach the CAA tournament final. A Cougar win would be an example for underdogs (undercats?) everywhere. And boy did this game deliver where the semi-finals did not. We found ourselves with a back-and-forth contest for primetime CBS Sports Network basketball! Charleston, one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, immediately took it to Hofstra. Isaac Kante continued his bright tournament showing, scoring eleven points in the first half. To cap it all off, Zep Jasper, thrust into the spotlight in the craziest of seasons to lead his team, drove to the basket with 35 seconds to go. Jasper banked it off the backboard over Kante and brought his team their second conference title in three years. We’ll see them on Selection Sunday for more Madness!