Boy, what a difference one week makes! An exciting yet ultimately unsatisfying loss to Old Dominion in November left us at No Bid Nation wanting more. Now the Tribe have rattled off two straight wins, including a comeback for the ages against George Washington. Dane Fischer has proven again that his team can hang in there; the Tribe won’t be finishing last in the CAA.
The combination of offensive and defensive dedication in the first half of Wednesday’s game against Hampton was particularly impressive. While the team disappointingly took their foot off the gas in the second half, which a young team will do at times, the Tribe attack was nonetheless balanced, and defense was solid. It will be interesting to see if the Tribe can sustain such a performance against teams that aren’t ranked 19th worst in the entire country.
William and Mary Tribe vs. High Point, 2pm
Watch (it’s Flosports, but I ain’t linking to that) | Listen
Tale of the Tape
W&M (2-1) currently ranks 257th in KenPom. While the Tribe is ranked as a pretty okay offense (166th), defense continues to be an issue (329th out of 357).
High Point (1-4) is currently 281st in KenPom’s rankings, and they don’t particularly stand out on either side of the ball.
Our KYUSAG model is much more positive on the Tribe, rating them the 158th best team in the nation. However, our model ranks High Point higher as well at 265th.
Vegas odds favor William & Mary by 5.5 points, two points less than our model gives. The resulting win probability prediction gives the Tribe a 79% chance of netting a home debut victory. Let’s hope the optimism in the data is converted into actual results!
Projected Starters
W&M: G Luke Loewe (Sr.), G Yuri Covington (Fr.), G Thornton Scott (Jr.), F Quinn Blair (Jr.), F Ben Wight (Fr.)
For the first time this season, everyone is essentially healthy. Although Wight got into foul trouble again against Hampton, he will probably once again start. Expect Harvey and Wight to both continue to receive significant minutes.
HP: G Ahmil Flowers (Fr.), G Bryson Childress (Fr.), G John-Michael Wright (So.), F Emmanuel Izunabor (So.), F Lydell Elmore (Sr.)
What to Watch For
The keys for the Tribe heading into their final two games before the start of conference play are (1) continue to build offensive confidence of players not named Luke Loewe and (2) show some growth on defense. Unlike in most other seasons, the Tribe do not have time to iron out their defensive issues. While there has been some improvement (and Harvey does co-lead the NCAA in blocked shots per game), opponents are still getting far too many easy shots. Opponents’ two-point percentage is more than three points above NCAA average. Nathan Knight’s shoes may be big to fill, but I want to see more from Harvey and Wight in genuine shot-prevention rather than blocks after the fact.
It is also key we get all of our guys rolling before our New Year’s tilt with Hofstra. Covington is still frustrating to watch, and probably will be for the rest of the season. However, his aggressive playstyle is refreshing, and we should continue to support him because once his shots start going, it’s lights out. I have written about Thornton Scott’s importance to this Tribe team before and I will say it again (we are undefeated with Scott on the court this season…). He has delivered on his role as chief playmaker, but I would hope for him to get involved a little more on the scoring side (Scott currently averages 3.5 points a game). The list could go on and on, but I will end with Connor Kochera. He is still shooting 89% from beyond the arc. Getting him fully ready for conference play should be a priority.
Looking at the strengths of these teams, I agree with KYUSAG’s notion that this game will be relatively easier than expected for the Tribe. Somehow, High Point’s defense is even worse than William & Mary’s. High Point’s opponents shoot at a 60% clip from two and above average from three. Covington and Loewe should find some success around the rim. One area that might prove difficult is that High Point play aggressively and draw a lot of fouls. Wight and Harvey need to keep their game clean.
As this as serving as my kick-off to the holidays, I am super psyched! Surely the Tribe won’t let me down…You can catch the game today on Flosports.