Northeastern has been stuck in the middle tier of the CAA as of late. But with the most talent they’ve had in years, can they take the jump into the conference’s elite?
2019–20 Record: 13-6, 9-9 CAA (5th place)
Over the past four years, Northeastern has been perpetually on the brink of greatness, never quite breaking into the elite upper half of the Colonial Athletic Association.
Year after year, under veteran head coach Kelly Cole — who’s now entering her seventh season at Northeastern — the Huskies have ended up a decent, middle-of-the-pack team who’ve been unable to surpass the elites of James Madison and Drexel and other contenders who’ve fallen in and out of the conversation.
Instead of the climbing their way up to the top of the conference, the Huskies have been stuck on the plateau of disappointing CAA losses and middling fifth- and sixth-place finishes.
Last season, before the COVID-19 pandemic hit and abruptly canceled the CAA Tournament, Northeastern closed with the all-too-familiar record of fifth place (9-9 CAA, 13-16 overall), finishing .500 in the CAA once again for the second year in a row.
In fact, going into the CAA Quarterfinals against fourth-seeded Towson (9-9 CAA, 14-15 overall), the Huskies were just one win shy of trading places with the Tigers. Had Northeastern won its overtime match against Charleston (March 1), which the Huskies narrowly lost 66-61, they Huskies would’ve finished above .500 in the conference and in a marginally better-sounding fourth place.
But such, sadly, was not the case for the hapless Huskies, who ended up the fifth seed and who were sent home because of the coronavirus Thursday, March 12, before ball was even tipped off against Towson in the postseason.
The year before, in 2018-19, the Huskies finished sixth in the CAA (9-9 CAA, 20-12 overall), closing at .500 in conference play for the first year in a row, followed by 2019-20.
And in 2017-18, despite finishing with an 11-7 CAA record (16-15 overall), Northeastern ended up only fifth in the conference — a fifth-place finish it saw repeat last season in 2019-20.
Given this recent history of fifth- and sixth-place finishes and .500-or-so records in the CAA, success for Cole and the Huskies this year will involve three achievements: One, finishing in fourth place or above in the CAA; two, finishing with a winning record; and, three, finishing with 10 or more conference victories.
If the Huskies achieve these three goals, they’ll have much reason to celebrate after having been a middling-to-subpar team for much of the past decade.
And with the up-and-coming, much-improved talent Northeastern has on its roster, particularly Alexis Hill (Preseason All-CAA First Team) and Stella Clark (Preseason All-CAA Second Team), these goals are possible — not likely, but possible.
The CAA preseason poll has Northeastern finishing fourth (tied with Elon), behind No. 1 James Madison, No. 2 Drexel and No. 3 Towson.
I think that’s a fair rating, and I’m projecting Northeastern to finish fourth as well, possibly third if the Huskies can slip by Towson and Elon.
While the Huskies certainly won’t be able to challenge the likes of James Madison and Drexel, who are the twin powerhouses of the conference (especially now that William and Mary has fallen out of the conversation with Eva Hodgson sitting out), Northeastern may be able to outplay and outperform expectations if Hill and Clark have another great season, complete with the same remarkable improvements they showed last year.
Hill especially will be the difference-maker for Northeastern this season. A 5-foot-11 junior forward from Lebanon, Pa., she took great strides forward last year as a sophomore, becoming one of the most talented two-way players in the CAA as well as one of the most improved players in the entire conference.
Not only did she earn a spot on the All-CAA Second Team, but she was also honored as part of the CAA All-Defensive Team.
And both awards were well deserved, because Hill averaged 13.1 points (top-15 in the CAA), 6.4 rebounds (top-10 in the CAA) and 2.5 steals (top-30 in the nation) per game last season.
By contrast, in 2018-19, she averaged only 4.4 points, 3.4 rebounds and 0.6 steals per game.
In addition, Hill went from averaging 14.4 minutes per game in 2018-19 (in which she came off the bench all 32 games) to averaging 30.4 minutes per game last season in 2019-20 (starting 26 out of the 29 games she played).
Plus, her shooting improved during that time as well. In 2018-19, Hill shot 45.9 percent (51-of-111) from the field and 58.8 percent (40-of-68) from the line; whereas, last season, she shot a slightly improved 48.6 percent (144-of-296) from the field and a much-improved 67.4 percent (93-of-138) from the line.
Despite playing a much greater number of minutes and taking a much greater amount of shots, Hill showed great skill in starting her position and she continued to improve remarkably as the season progressed.
During her first collegiate start, Hill opened the season with 15 points, four rebounds, three assists, four steals and three blocks in 31 minutes against South Dakota (Nov. 5, 2019), in which Northeastern lost narrowly at home, 76-80.
And against Elon (Jan. 17) early in conference play, she registered 17 points, 16 rebounds, three blocks and two steals during a career-high 41 minutes in which the Huskies narrowly beat the Phoenix in overtime, 68-65.
However, Hill’s finest moment last season came in the Huskies’ heartbreaking loss to Charleston, in which Hill combined a career-high 28 points with 12 rebounds, also setting new career highs in steals (6) and minutes played (43).
Assuming Hill shows that level of improvement again this year and earns her rightful spot on the All-CAA First Team in the postseason, the Huskies should be in good shape to finish fourth in the CAA.
But in addition to Hill, success this season — and whether the Huskies rise above expectations — will depend on Clark, the 5-foot-4 senior guard from Sea Girt, N.J., who like Hill showed great improvement last season.
Also a former reserve player, Clark went from making four starts out of 27 games played in 2018-19 to making all 29 starts her junior year in 2019-20.
And increasing her minutes from an average of 25.5 per game in 2018-19 to an average of 34.2 per game last season, she also increased her averages from 8.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game in 2018-19 to 11 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game in 2019-20.
The only concern I have with Clark is that her accuracy dipped as a shooter last season from the year before as her amount of attempts increased.
In 2018-19, she shot 40 percent (78-of-195) from the field, 37.9 percent (36-of-95) from three and 69.6 percent (39-of-56) from the line. By contrast, last season, she shot 36.3 percent (110-of-303) from the field, 31.8 percent (42-of-132) from three and 65.1 percent (56-of-86) from the line — in other words, slightly worse across the board.
But, assuming Clark has time to work on her shot — which I think she will — Clark should be a solid, dependable guard for Northeastern this season and a nice pairing for Hill, the Huskies’ star forward.
If I were a Northeastern fan, while I wouldn’t be too confident that my Huskies are going to win the CAA this season with James Madison and Drexel still dominating, I’d feel fine with a fourth- or possibly third-place finish.