So, how was everybody’s weekend? Do anything fun on Saturday? There were plenty of good sporting events on, which is basically how I spend my Covid weekends now.
Let’s be clear — W&M’s 71-49 loss to High Point was not one of those good sporting events. The Tribe got thoroughly outplayed in every phase by a team that we thought they were better than. W&M turned the ball over 12 (TWELVE!) times and shot an abysmal 6-for-27 from the floor during maybe the worst half of basketball I’ve ever seen this team play. They bounced back to play somewhat better in the second, but that’s not saying way too much, all things considered. The Tribe was never in this ballgame. (John Kearns’ recap expressed these feelings quite nicely.)
Now, as the Tribe attempts to bounce back, they hop on 64 West for a couple hours to follow the route of W&M’s most famous alumnus (although Jill Ellis, Sean McDermott, and Mike Tomlin certainly have made cases for themselves). In the domain of Bodo’s Bagels, pretentious names for simple things like a college campus, and pack-line defense, can William and Mary pull the upset against the 16th-ranked Cavaliers?
My answer is no, but if there were ever a year… it might be this one.
William and Mary Tribe @ #16 Virginia Cavaliers, 2 p.m.
Watch: ACC Network (stream on ESPN website, app) | Listen
Tale of the Tape
Believe it or not, the numbers were not kind to W&M (2-2) following the ugly loss to High Point. The Tribe currently ranks 281st in KenPom — adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 215th, while the defense still lags at 330th.
Virginia (3-1) is a top-25 caliber team, ranking 18th in KenPom. As is customary for Tony Bennett-coached UVA teams, they are elite defensively — posting the 5th-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country. Their 57th-ranked offense is good, but not at the defense’s level.
According to John Kearns’ KYUSAG Model, the Cavaliers are a 19.8-point favorite over W&M, while the Tribe holds onto a 2.5% chance to spring the upset.
Projected Starters
W&M: G Luke Loewe (Sr.), G Yuri Covington (Fr.), G Thornton Scott (Jr.), F Quinn Blair (Jr.), F Mehkel Harvey (Jr.) Who knows who starts at the 5 for the Tribe… I’ll go with Harvey since he started last game. We’ll see if Scott continues to start given his struggles against High Point.
UVA: G Reese Beekman (Fr.), G Kihei Clark (Jr.), F Sam Hauser (RSr.), F Justin McKoy (So.), F Jay Huff (RSr.)
What to Watch For
As John Kearns tweeted during the High Point game, Luke Loewe is an absolute professional. He goes out and does his job, even if nobody else does, as we saw on Saturday. Loewe led the team with a very efficient 13 points, on just seven shots. He also notched three assists, three boards, and four steals. If you were to build a senior leader for this year of growth, Loewe might be exactly that guy … The Tribe has struggled with turnovers so far this season, and that continued on Saturday. And while you might expect that from a freshman ballhandler (Covington had five turnovers), four turnovers from a veteran guard in Thornton Scott is not acceptable … Turnovers aside, Covington has had a pretty good start to his college career. He was named CAA Rookie of the Week on Monday after averaging 12.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game. He may be frustrating at times, but he has a bright future ahead of him, especially if he builds on the three-point shooting he showed in the second half against High Point … I think I tweeted this on Saturday, but we need to come to terms with the fact that neither Harvey nor Wight are great paint defenders at this point. It may be blasphemy at this point, with Harvey near the top of the NCAA in blocks per game. But opponents shoot 53.1% on two-pointers, and people aren’t afraid to drive and finish at the bucket on either of them. Both can certainly grow into those roles, but right now, it’s not an area of strength as it was last year.
Like W&M, Virginia ran into some Covid issues and had to shut down — this is the Cavs’ first game in 18 days. Maybe the Tribe will be able to prey on some of the rust, like we showed early against GW … Sam Hauser is Virginia’s best offensive player by a fair margin. He can score at all three levels (at the hoop, mid-range, behind the arc) and is averaging 14.5 points per game. He’s also a good rebounder and, like everybody at UVA, a great cog in that pack-line defense … The Tribe is 55-26 in the series against Virginia, but the last W&M win was back in 1984.
Cameron and I talked about this on a recent podcast episode, but W&M-Virginia is a fake rivalry. I’ve never met a UVA — oh, excuse me, U.Va. — person that feels the same way about us that some W&M students feel about them. It’s a lot more about academics and W&M people feeling scorned and forgotten than anything else. We’re obviously not on the same level athletically; I mean the last time I was on Virginia’s campus — I’m sorry, I meant grounds — was to see W&M football get smacked by the Cavs. That was not surprising in the least, and it did not change my outlook on their season. It’s just a non-factor. You can’t tell me that anybody at Virginia, freshman through senior, wants to beat us the way we want to beat them. Oh, shit, my bad — I meant first-year through fourth-year.
It may not be a rivalry, but they’re sure easy to dislike sometimes. It’d be fun to beat them. One day…
Cameron will get your recap this afternoon. Let’s go Tribe, and let’s not embarrass ourselves.