Sixteen days have passed since we last saw the William and Mary men’s basketball team play an opponent in what has been already a crazy season for college hoops. While the women’s team has been able to continue playing and has already faced three opponents (going 1-2 against them), the men’s team has not played since Saturday, Nov. 28, when the Tribe made its debut against Old Dominion.
After our narrow defeat against the Monarchs 78-86, our Tribe experienced a positive COVID-19 test within the team’s Tier 1 personnel, forcing the Tribe to quarantine for 14 days, pause all activity and postpone three of our eight non-conference games (NC State, Hampton and Norfolk State). And, as bad luck would have it, once our Tribe emerged from quarantine Tuesday, Dec. 8 (following a shortened, 10-day period), we had to postpone our newly rescheduled game against Virginia (originally set for Saturday, Dec. 12, and moved to Sunday, Dec. 13) due to a positive COVID-19 test in the Cavaliers’ locker room. Who knows whether we’ll play that game or any of our postponed games later in the season — I doubt it — but let’s pray that we can continue playing basketball and finish our season in these uncertain times. It’s good to be back. Now, let’s hope we can stay that way.
William and Mary Tribe at George Washington Colonials, 7 p.m.
Projected Starters
William and Mary: G Luke Loewe (Sr.), G Yuri Covington (Fr.), G Connor Kochera (Fr.), F Quinn Blair (Jr.), F Mehkel Harvey (Jr.). After redshirt freshman Ben Wight’s troubled performance against Old Dominion — getting into foul trouble early with three fouls in the first half — I think we’ll have a good chance of seeing Harvey in the starting lineup. Otherwise, I think the starting five is fairly set; junior guard Thornton Scott is still battling an ankle/foot injury, I believe, and freshman guard Jake Milkereit is easing back into the game after suffering a devastating leg injury last year.
George Washington: G James Bishop (So.), G Jameer Nelson Jr. (So.), F Matthew Moyer (Gr.) F Jamison Battle (So.), F Chase Paar (So.). The Colonials have run this starting lineup all five of their games so far and have had mixed success, going 1-4 (.200).
Data by Kearns
The Tribe is given a win probability of only 26.6 percent, as the Colonials are a 5.2-point favorite, according to John Kearns’s data modeling.
In addition, according to Kearns’s KYUSAG model, William and Mary is ranked 227 overall in the NCAA, while George Washington (playing in the Atlantic 10 Conference) is ranked 165 out of 357.
What to Watch For
The biggest challenge for William and Mary (0-1) going into this game is rust, in not having played an opponent in 16 days. While George Washington (1-4) has not had a strong start to the season, either, the Colonials have at least played five opponents and have more experience together as a squad going into this game. Assuming our offense continues to struggle — with turnovers and contested mid-range shots, as was the case against Old Dominion — George Washington may be able to do to us what it was unable to do against Delaware: close the game. (In their most recent game Friday, Dec. 11, the Colonials fell to the Blue Hens 68-65.)
Besides senior guard Luke Loewe, who looked like an all-around stud against the Monarchs — putting up 16 points and 10 assists — the players I think to watch for this game are freshman guards Connor Kochera and Yuri Covington. Kochera, who netted CAA Rookie of the Week honors Monday, Nov. 30, made the strongest freshman debut at William and Mary since 2004, when Edwin Ofori Attah put up 22 points against Hartford. Posting 19 points on 6-of-9 shooting (including 6-of-7 from three), Kochera looked fabulous in his 35-minute debut as a starter, and I think if head coach Dane Fischer can teach Kochera and this team to play a little smarter on both ends of the floor and not accumulate so many bad fouls and turnovers, I think William and Mary has a decent shot at winning this game against George Washington. And with Covington, while I’m excited by what I saw from him — his speed, his athleticism, his drive and his free-throw shooting give me great hope — I think if he is going to be the primary ball-handler for this team, he needs to be a little smarter passing the ball and a little better finishing his layups and his contested two-pointers. Not only did Covington have four turnovers to four assists against Old Dominion, but he also shot only 3-of-11 from the field, including 0-of-3 from behind the arc. He’ll need to distribute better and shoot better if this Tribe is to truly succeed.
Redshirt freshman Ben Wight might also be a factor against George Washington, and I’ll be curious to see if he has a better performance against the Colonials than he did in his debut against Old Dominion. Against the Monarchs, in the 12 minutes he played as a starter, Wight quickly racked up three fouls and was replaced by junior forward Mekhel Harvey. And speaking of whom, Harvey, who looked like he played some of the best basketball he’s ever played at William and Mary — tallying eight points, seven rebounds and three huge blocks — might replace Wight in the starting lineup against the Colonials, so be sure to watch for both of these big men as the Tribe takes on George Washington.
For George Washington, the players to watch out for are sophomore guard James Bishop and sophomore forward Jamison Battle, the Colonials’ top two scorers right now. Bishop, who’s averaging 19.2 points per game on 44.9 percent shooting, is playing well, despite not having been tapped for A-10 preseason honors. And so is Battle — the former A-10 All-Rookie team honoree — who’s averaging 15.6 points and 7.8 rebounds per game on 43.1 percent shooting, including 32.3 percent from three. While the Colonials were ranked in the bottom half (11th out of 14) of the Atlantic 10 Conference and have been giving up an average of 77 points on defense these past five games, they’ve looked strong on offense and have been competitive in each of their five games so far, only once losing by more than double-figures. (Eleven is their greatest margin of defeat so far, having fallen to UMBC 92-81 Monday, Dec. 7.) Expect George Washington to win this game unless the Colonials’ offense struggles and William and Mary plays a cleaner contest.