In the last couple of years, I’ve become acquainted with a podcast called “Well, There’s Your Problem.” Let me first be very clear that, in the relentless listing and re-listing of media that I need to consume, I have not listened to this podcast, though it’s been referenced and recommended by some of my favorite podcasters.
But — that being said — I do have an idea about the premise of the podcast. It’s generally about disasters, big and small, and the fatal flaw that caused them. Hence, the title.
William & Mary was picked tied for fourth in the CAA preseason poll. While slow non-conference starts have been the norm under Coach Erin Dickerson-Davis, the beginning to this season was even more concerning. How did this team get here?
Well, there’s your problem.
The Tribe has struggled mightily offensively. While W&M turns the ball over a little less than the average DI team, they occupy the bottom quartile in just about every other offensive metric.
Take a look at the shot chart below. The hexagons are sized by the number of shots from each location on the floor and colored by the percentage the team shoots from each spot, compared to the DI average.
You see that the Tribe shoots its worst where it takes its most shots? Yeah, that’s not good. W&M’s 41.0% eFG percentage (basically, a measure of shooting percentage that takes into account how much each shot is worth) is 10th in the CAA. And a big part of that is W&M’s abysmal rate of getting to the free throw line: the Tribe’s free throw rate of just 19.1% is tied for last in the league and 352nd in the country. That’s 352 out of 362. Yikes.
That said, there have been some signs that the offense could be slowly turning around. Bella Nascimento and Cassidy Geddes combine to take about 44% of the Tribe’s shots, and each has improved drastically since conference play began. Both players have trended up from nonconference play when it comes to shooting percentage and free throw rate.
The Tribe continues a soft run in CAA play through the end of the month, with three straight games that it’s favored in and a chance to get out to 5-2 in the conference. If W&M can continue to figure out some of its issues over the first half of conference play, they can potentially edge back into the top half of the CAA for the third time in Coach E’s three years.