Last time out, William and Mary fought back from an 18-point second half deficit to beat GW, 85-84 in overtime. It was a stark turnaround from the first half to the second. With how young this team is, the inconsistency is probably to be expected.
But, the last few minutes of regulation and overtime had the feel of a team maturing, growing up, learning how to win. Behind the senior leadership of straight-up baller Luke Loewe, the Tribe showed its toughness and went punch for punch with the Colonials.
Tonight at Hampton sets up as a bit of a let-down game — off a big, emotional win, William and Mary plays a team that they should beat if they’re truly maturing and learning to play more consistent basketball. I think we’ll learn a good bit about the trajectory of this season’s team tonight.
William and Mary Tribe @ Hampton Pirates, 6 p.m.
Tale of the Tape
William and Mary (1-1) currently ranks 274th in KenPom. The Tribe’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 161st, while its adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 340th (yuck).
Hampton (1-2) is currently 337th in KenPom’s rankings, with the 312th-best adjusted offensive efficiency and 341st adjusted defensive efficiency.
According to John Kearns’s KYUSAG Model, the Tribe is a 8.9-point favorite over the Pirates, with a 81.3 percent win probability.
Projected Starters
W&M: G Luke Loewe (Sr.), G Yuri Covington (Fr.), G Thornton Scott (Jr.), F Quinn Blair (Jr.), F Ben Wight (RFr.) Tonight is the first game that everybody will be healthy (pending Connor Kochera’s return from a non-Covid illness). I think Scott starts for now, considering Kochera’s probably still working his conditioning back after missing some time, but it’ll be interesting to see which one settles into the starting lineup and which one ends up as a sixth man.
ODU: G Russell Dean (So.), G Davion Warren (Sr.), G Chris Shelton (So.), F Saheem Anthony (Sr.), F Ed Oliver-Hampton (Sr.)
What to Watch For
So far, William and Mary’s rotation has been as deep as we expected. Nine players got time in the Tribe’s win over George Washington, including eight of those getting double-digit minutes. Expect that number to grow today, as William and Mary is ostensibly healthy for the first time all year … Luke Loewe has become the go-to offensive player for the Tribe this season. It was a little bit of a question mark heading into the year after Nathan Knight graduated, but Loewe has positioned himself as somebody who can go get a bucket when William and Mary needs it. He’s averaging 20 points per game so far this year and had 17 in the second half and overtime Monday night. If you haven’t seen it (and I don’t know why you’re reading this if you haven’t seen it), here’s his game-winning bucket against the Colonials … Ben Wight and Mehkel Harvey have been a decent duo at the center position, at least offensively. The two combined for 18 points in the win over GW on 8-of-9 shooting. Wight showed off his athleticism and power with a couple of strong two-handed dunks in traffic, while Harvey notched five blocks with his insane length. Both need to become better rebounders, though that is not an issue that is isolated to them on the Tribe … Yuri Covington also played extremely well down the stretch, getting to the bucket at will. Covington and Loewe combined for 31 of William and Mary’s final 44 points against the Colonials. He still looks like a freshman, especially when it comes to his carelessness with the ball, but his motor and quickness are elite skills.
Hampton lost their two best players from last season, Jermaine Marrow and Ben Stanley — Marrow graduated, and Stanley transferred to Xavier. The two combined for over 46 points per game, one of the best scoring duos in the country. This year, without those two, the Pirates are struggling offensively, shooting at an effective field goal percentage of just .444. Davion Warren is leading Hampton in scoring so far this year with 16.7 points per game, but the Pirates don’t have way too much firepower offensively. Ed Oliver-Hampton and Chris Shelton can also put up double-digits, but past that, Hampton will probably see more balanced scoring … The Pirates have a true seven-footer in Dajour Dickens. It will be interesting to see how the Tribe attacks him offensively, but also to see if William and Mary can put a body on him and not get destroyed on the boards. Hampton is an average rebounding team, but the Tribe seriously needs to improve its defensive rebounding … Last season, William and Mary beat Hampton 78-65 in Williamsburg. Andy Van Vliet and Bryce Barnes led the way with 22 and 21 points, respectively.
Check out the most recent episode of The NBN Pod! You can find it wherever you get your podcasts. If you enjoy it, subscribe!
I got recap duties tonight. See you at 6 p.m.!