Elon showed flashes of brilliance in a rebuilding year last season. Now, in Mike Schrage’s second campaign, can a young and talented Elon team take the jump to contention, or are they another year away?
2019–20 Record: 13-21, 7-11 CAA (7th place)
2019–20 KenPom Record: 277th (8th in CAA)
As much as it pains me to say it, Elon had a decent season last year, and Elon will probably have another decent season this year.
Despite finishing seventh in the Colonial Athletic Association with a 7-11 record (.389) in conference play, the Phoenix came alive during the end of the season, saw strong performances from its three-point shooters and managed to topple our poor College in the CAA Quarterfinals 68-63 in an excruciating defeat Sunday, March 8.
The loss was particularly painful for me given that we’d already beaten the Phoenix once before, 86-79, in the regular-season home finale and Senior Day game Saturday, Feb. 29.
I covered that game, and while I was dismayed by some of Elon’s hot scoring runs, I took the win as a win and looked forward to the quarterfinals rematch with William and Mary entering the CAA Tournament as the No. 2 seed.
However, my optimism was soon shattered when a largely resilient Phoenix squad outscored our lifeless Tribe offense (excluding Nathan Knight, who managed to put up 24 points and grab 10 rebounds).
Led by Hunter Woods, Marcus Sheffield and Hunter McIntosh, the Phoenix hit shot after shot from three and sent our College packing from Washington, D.C., before the coronavirus could even have a chance to.
Woods, Elon’s leading scorer, finished with 20 points and 15 rebounds, shooting 7-of-13 from the field, including 5-of-7 from three.
In second, Sheffield, scored 19 points and grabbed six rebounds, shooting 7-of-21 from the field, including 3-of-7 from three.
And in third, McIntosh finished with 12 points and six rebounds, shooting 3-of-9 from the field, including 3-of-7 from three.
In all, these three Phoenix guards combined to shoot 39.5 percent (17-of-43) from the field, including 52.4 percent (11-of-21) from three. Those numbers were enough to push Elon over the top against our College, which could barely score without Knight’s valiant 24-point performance. Other than Knight, only Andy Van Vliet cracked double-digits, scoring just 11 points in 34 minutes as a starter.
If I’ve learned anything from that game or from our previous contest against Elon, it’s not to underestimate the Phoenix, head coach Mike Schrage or Elon’s shooters. Except for Sheffield, a graduate transfer from Stanford who made last year’s All-CAA Second Team and who has since graduated, Elon’s young hotshots will be back — by which I mean the two Hunters, McIntosh and Woods both.
McIntosh especially will be one of the more dangerous players in the conference, given what an explosive shooter he is from three. He showed great promise as a freshman last season, and he’ll continue to show that same drive, talent and leadership as a sophomore, I imagine, during this unprecedented, coronavirus-plagued season in 2020-21.
Not only was McIntosh the CAA Rookie of the Year and part of the CAA All-Rookie Team, but he also won CAA Rookie of the Week honors four times last season (Dec. 16, Feb. 3, Feb. 14 and Feb. 24). Starting in all 34 games for Elon, he averaged 11.7 points and 3.3 rebounds per game and led the team in average assists at 3.0 per game.
In addition, he led the team in three-point makes (80) and tied Sheffield for the team lead in three-point field goal percentage (40.4), playing 1,087 total minutes (second most on the team) for an average of 32 minutes per game.
While the loss of Sheffield is huge for the Phoenix, costing Elon an average of 33.4 minutes per game and 18.4 points per game (last year’s numbers), I’ve no doubt that McIntosh and Woods will still be that strong core around which Elon is built, and that Elon will continue to mount some strong performances this season. I’m expecting the Phoenix to finish the season in the middle of the conference — fourth, fifth or sixth — perhaps a little higher than last year (seventh, to reiterate).
Plus, by all accounts I’ve heard, McIntosh, Woods and the players all really like Schrage — who, like our College’s very own Dane Fischer, was a first-year head coach last season. From what I’ve heard, Elon respects its coach and all the players have bought into his system and love playing for him.
The only downside I see for Elon going into this season is the loss of Zac Ervin (injured) and JaDun Michael, Schrage’s highly touted three-star recruit who’s out all year because of a shoulder injury requiring surgery.
Had Michael been healthy going into the season, I would’ve considered Elon title contenders this year in the CAA. Instead, the Phoenix will have to wait until next season, 2021–22, when Michael returns, before I pick Elon to make a run at a CAA championship.
Michael — a 6-foot-5 talent from nearby Burlington, N.C. — would’ve pushed Elon over the top this year, I’m confident.
Not only was Michael an All-Conference, All-Region and All-State performer as both a junior (2018–19) and a senior (2019–20), but he also helped lead The Burlington School to a NCISSA 1A State Championship game appearance as a senior, eclipsing the 1,000-point mark that year.
However, despite Ervin’s and Michael’s loss this season (and despite the COVID-19 pandemic), I’m confident that Elon will have a good record this season. In addition to recruiting Michael over the likes of Wichita State, Virginia and other good schools, Schrage has shown himself to be a talented recruiter so far as head coach, especially in the intriguing grad-transfer market.
To Schrage’s credit, he recruited Sheffield, who was a huge plus, from Stanford last season. And this season, he’s signed Ikenna Ndugba, a 6-foot guard from Bryant who I think will be a nice complement to the Phoenix. Additionally, 6-foot-5 guard Jerald Gillens-Butler, who sat out last year after transferring from Butler, is eligible this year.
Painful though it may be, Elon’s going to have a decent season this year — and I’m going to have to accept that inconvenient fact and swallow my Tribe pride as Elon rises in the standings and my Tribe plummets, without Knight and all its star power.
In a few years, the Phoenix will be CAA title contenders — book it. I like the way this program is moving and where Schrage’s taking this Phoenix.