Aside from All-CAA guard Matt Lewis, JMU will have barely any familiar faces. That includes the man charged with turning the program around.
2019-20 Record: 9-21, 2-16 CAA (10th place)
2019-20 KenPom Ranking: 311th (9th in CAA)
James Madison had reasons for optimism last year. Matt Lewis was one of the best guards in the CAA, Darius Banks was an elite shooter who also chipped in with some rebounds and steals, and Dwight Wilson could match up physically with any big in the league.
Indeed, it wasn’t just those in Harrisonburg that had high expectations. The Dukes were picked fourth in the preseason poll and racked up three first-place votes, which spoke to both the talent head coach Louis Rowe had gathered as well as the parity in the conference.
Early on in the season, it looked like JMU would indeed make some noise in the CAA. Quality wins against East Carolina and on the road at Old Dominion highlighted a 7-5 nonconference slate. Maybe, just maybe, Rowe had assembled a solid team that could withstand the weekly grind of the conference schedule.
Then, the wheels fell off. The Dukes would win just two of their next 19 games, including a CAA Tournament First Round defeat to Elon. That isn’t to say that JMU wasn’t competitive — 10 of those losses were by less than 10 points. But they struggled big in late game scenarios, which did not reflect well on Rowe.
Regardless of Rowe’s coaching abilities, it was time for a change. And change the Dukes did — as 10 of the 15 players on the roster and the entire coaching staff are new in 2020-21.
Mark Byington, formerly of Georgia State, takes over in Harrisonburg, bringing with him two assistants, his Director of Basketball Operations, and three 20-win seasons in his final three in Statesboro. (For more on Byington, check out JMU Sports Blog’s post on why they like the hire.)
(Editor’s note: I was watching Georgia State football this weekend, so it wormed its way into my brain. Byington was the coach at Georgia Southern — which is indeed in Statesboro, GA. Apologies for the error.)
Alongside all the Georgia transplants, Byington brought in five transfers, four of whom should be eligible this year. Put that together with five freshmen and the Dukes will be much different in the new coach’s first season.
It will be almost impossible for them to be as bad as they were last season, but how much will they improve?
Short answer: who knows. Of the newcomers added to the roster, junior guard Vado Morse has seen the floor the most at the college level, starting last year at Mount St. Mary’s. He put up almost six three-pointers per game at a pedestrian 31.6%, and barely shot better from inside the arc at 32%. In fact, among all his teammates at the Mount last season with at least 100 shots, Morse posted by far the worst true shooting percentage at just 45.8%. (TS% weights three-pointers, two-pointers and free throws appropriately to estimate how efficient a shooter is.)
Meanwhile, six-foot-10 junior forward Joel Mensah is probably the most talented of the transfers coming into James Madison, spending his first two seasons at San Diego State. He played a grand total of 11% of available minutes, never breaking through into the rotation. He was a four-star recruit out of high school, but hasn’t proved himself. I would expect to see a bunch of him, but we won’t know what we’ll get until he hits the floor.
Those two, alongside additional eligible transfers Jalen Hodge (junior guard from Louisiana-Monroe) and Rashawn Fredericks (grad transfer guard on his fourth team in four seasons — from Motlow State CC to Cincinnati to UAB to JMU) will join forces with three scholarship freshmen to remake the Dukes rotation.
However, that rotation won’t be without a few familiar faces. Lewis returns for his senior year and is probably the most proven returning player in the conference — Cam Wynter joins Lewis as the only two players from the All-CAA Second-Team or better to come back in 2020-21. That distinction is earned; Lewis is a good all-around offensive player. He can shoot the ball, get to the hole, or distribute to his teammates, and he doesn’t turn the ball over. He’s not a standout defensive player, but not incredibly poor one-on-one. He will continue to have the ball in his hands nearly every time down the court, and I’d expect another All-CAA caliber season from him.
Also returning in purple and gold are role players Michael Christmas and Zach Jacobs. Christmas, a sophomore small forward, is a good shooter, but did not produce much more last year. Jacobs, a senior, started 11 games last year. Down the stretch, he mostly backed up Wilson at the 5, but he can also play at the 4 if needed. Jacobs did show some promise in his junior year, shooting a solid 47.7% from the field. But he struggled to match up with the most physically imposing bigs in the CAA.
In terms of the most immediate impact a new coaching regime will have in Harrisonburg, you have to believe the Dukes defense will be significantly improved. While their offense was akin to a below-average D-I team last year (with a KenPom offensive rating that ranked 230th in the NCAA), the other side of the floor was atrocious — in the bottom 10th percentile of all teams. While some of it was personnel-based, Rowe had some hand in the result. The Dukes’ help defense and rotations, to be frank, sucked last year, and can only go up under Mark Byington.
The top of the conference is wide-open this season, given Delaware’s offseason losses and the lack of marquee talent in the league. JMU could possibly fill that void, although I would shy away from projecting too much, given their lack of continuity even compared to the rest of the league and the inevitable growing pains that will happen in the first year of a new coach. But Byington is well-regarded by many in the know, and the Dukes have the talent to make some noise in a CAA season in which the operative word is “parity.”
Thanks to KenPom.com for the advanced stats utilized in this article.